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down, not up. lori: the senate approved a house plan to approve the debt ceiling and hold off on congressional pay if they don't get a budget deal for the next ten years. you say this is more of a risk and even the fiscal cliff was. >> oh, yes. the debt ceiling is a potentially large fiscal contraction like the fiscal cliff was. even bigger, actually, if you do the math. debt ceiling is you cannot borrow, so you have to balance the budget tomorrow. in addition to that, there was the kind of not very real threat that we might default on the national debt or postpone payments, so you're playing with a combination of a big fiscal contraction and the possibility of triggering a financial crisis also. lori: i want to ask you about your book. after the music stopped, but about the financial crisis, to a dozen 7-8. looking back, said always 2020, what were the best actions taken by the federal government and the worst? >> at think there were three. in net you a tie for first? >> you know how tv works. >> one was tart. very unpopular, but effective and turn a profit for the taxpayer.
get rid of the debt ceiling? it's a real brawl. >> just deep six that sucker like no other country deals with this it ottic device. hey, i'm going to borrow some money, but i'll think twice over whether i'm going to pay the bill when it comes. >> what if it was the founding father himself who said i think we ought to have a debt ceiling so as to avoid fiscal recklessness? >> well, in fact, the debt ceiling, the reason we have one is because up until 100 years ago, we voted on every bond issue individually. so you think it's bad now, just imagine if we had had that situation. but looking forward, though, this is very much yesterday's story. it was interesting that the reason the dow took this latest jump upwards was because the house a couple of weeks ago signaled they weren't going to have a fight over the debt ceiling. now, people need to focus on the fact that the next big tripwire is the sequester. i think markets got a little bit complacent the one second. >> we want to talk about the federal reserve, as well. let's recap what the fed did. they kept their $85 billion bond buyin
've got the debt ceiling, so congress is still a factor here. any worries that, now that we have passed the fiscal cliff for the moment, that those two items might cause some trouble? > > absolutely. i am still worried about that. i think, longer-term, i have mentioned that there are a lot of positive things in this country that are actually occurring. energy revitalization and independence, i think that gets undersold. the fact that our labour force is now competitive. i think longer- term those are good things. my question is how quickly we get there, and there are all kinds of speed bumps before we kind of get to that end-state nirvana. and the big factor that holds the key to that is what happens in congress. > brent schutte. thanks so much. > > thank you. the big easy is working mighty hard to make a big comeback. we'll see what's new in new orleans, next. as the monday morning quarterbacking gets underway, we wanted to give special attention to the real winner of the super bowl: new orleans. joining us via skype this morning, mark romig. he's president and ceo of the new orleans t
before. last time in 1995. could it happen? rich edson. we have the fiscal cliff deal. the debt ceiling pushed back and the continuing resolution, right? >> this is because of the debt ceiling in relation to this calendar. the debt ceiling increase is approved in the senate next couple days. that pushes the debt ceiling to may 18th. the back end of number of cliffs upcoming in the calendar. look here at the government deadlines the congress and white house are facing right now. first, march 1st are the automatic spending cuts known as the sequester. they begin to hit the federal budget. that is something that takes place over the course of the year and is gradual. march 27th, that is when government spending runs out. or a large chunk of it. if there is no agreement on that, that could shut down the federal government. you're looking at debt ceiling all the way on may 18th. congressional aides saying treasury is telling them pause of extraordinary measures they can use, this pushes the debt ceiling day back to sometime this summer perhaps if this is a bill that clears congress and the s
, go ahead, we have breaking news. rich: the senate has voted to raise the debt ceiling through may 18. this also has a provision that says in the senate doesn't pass a budget, the senators don't get paid, house lawmakers don't get paid after april 15. they don't get paid until the end of congress and are made whole at the end of the congress in 2014. the bill goes to the president's desk raising the debt ceiling so treasury can extend that sometime to july or august. david: a quick question in terms of defense, we will be talking about how defense cutbacks are hurting individual jobs in individual sectors and does this affect defense spending directly? >> this moves the debt ceiling fight the back. now march 1, automatic spending cuts and defense and other programs begin to hit and government spending on march 27. next up, defense spending will be a topic of conversation in d.c. and congress. david: rich edson, thank you from d.c. liz: the chief strategist in the pits of the cme. right now i would love to sit here and talk about the trading action for today. the last day of january, i
with the debt ceiling because as we sit down here on the floor of the new york stock exchange watching a market that has largely gone up and not paid much attention to that fight of late, what are your expectations? can you expect anything better than we got with the cliff? >> i don't think we're going to see the debt ceiling being an issue. i think it would be foolish to hold the nation hostage by having a fight over the debt ceiling. i think we'll see it with sequestration. that's coming march 1st, not too far away and with the budget and the continuing resolutions. i think that's where the real fight will be, and i think we're seeing the consequences of an economy that's not investing, a government that has to pull back and what we saw in the gdp report yesterday, and, you know, who knows what we'll see tomorrow on the jobs report, but it's slowed down the economy and we're all waiting. >> absolutely. mark, good to have you on the program. thanks very much. >> thanks, maria, thanks, scott. >> we'll see you soon. the dow on pace for the best in 19 years or 24 years. it all depends on how you
it's not, it is always about "money". melissa: so forget the debt ceiling for a moment. we're just one month away from march 1st. that is the budget sequestration deadline. if congress fails to agree on specifically where to cut $85 billion, we're looking at automatic across-the-board cuts. house republicans made it clear they're ready to let the sequester happen. joining me now for more on this is democratic congressman curt schrader. thanks so much for joining us. what's going to happen? that's what we're all wondering? feels like we're cruising toward this deadline. what is going to happen? >> well, i'm worried, melissa, to be very honest with you. you're right if we don't get our act together do something on tax reform and the social safety net americans count on. we'll have across-the-board cuts. why do it with congress. we could have a bunch of chimpanzees to do this. melissa: don't tempt me. you sort of stopped me dead in my trackses with that one. is something going behind the scenes that we don't know about? doesn't seem like we're not getting closer. at the debt ceiling w
resolution. we seemed to have punted down the road the idea of using the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip. that's question number one. number two, can the rate of earnings grow? the earnings numbers are okay. earnings growth has slowed. can that rate of earnings growth sustain this kind of rally, these kinds of prices and evaluations. >> what do you think, kenny? >> i think it's ahead of itself. listen, the government put the sequestration and debt ceiling on vacation for six to ten weeks. therefore, the markets are concentrating right now. as we move through february, you can believe sequestration is going to come to the top again. when it does, it will have that whole sense of anxiety. >> let me answer questions. we are seeing revenue growth now. we have no revenue growth last quarter, now almost 4% in the quarter. if we get an acceleration even modestly top line growth, 5% maybe, that will go right to the bottom line. >> i want to get to rick santelli. he had an auction that went off the board. how does it look, ricky. >> doesn't look bad. we'll give it a grade in a minute. one issue m
off the debt ceiling fight they'd be able to take control of this issue. >> let's play what mitch mcconnell said just yesterday slamming the democrats for floating new revenue proposals. >> this is just another opportunity to trot out the democrat focus group approved policy stunt. if this is another fake fight designed by the white house to push us to the brink, then republicans are really not interested in playing along. >> molly, another fake fight. as it was described by mitch mcconnell there. but we know when you look at polling and watched since the end of the year, the polls show it's republicans who come up short where people believe they're presenting the fake fight, at least some of the polling. >> well, it is interesting to hear mcconnell describe it as focus group approved. they believe public opinion on their side and if there is what is viewed as gridlock and dysfunction in washington, republicans are blamed by that. i think the white house concluded, looking back on the last four years, that every time republican sort of faint and clutch their pearls about my gosh, he'
as they do oh, so well, kick the can down the road approving the debt ceiling show down until may. it was a 64-34 vote on the way to president obama who says he will sign it into law allowing uncle sam to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars more to meet obligations. without this legislation, the government would have surpassed its $16.4 trillion debt ceiling next month. just avoided that. more to come this hour including the latest on china hacking into our computers, and more than $7.5 trillion. that's how much money was pumped into this economy in five years. where did it go? did it do any good? i'll break it down, next. ♪ not their short-term agenda. [ male announcer ]oin the nearly 7 million investors who think like you do. face time and think time make a difference. at edward jones, it's how we make sense of investing. you know how painful heartburn can be. for fast, long lasting relief, use doctor recommended gaviscon®. only gaviscon® forms a protective barrier that helps block stomach acid from splashing up- relieving the pain quickly. try fast, long lasting gaviscon
with the debt ceiling negotiations. maybe some other kind of macroevent. last night saying to me, wouldn't it be ironic or weird if the big pest thing that happened hurricane the biggest fear of macromelt down never happened but instead what we got is boring old no growth? something nobody was really set up to deal with right now. that is not the dominant emotion. right now the jeep feeling is the bulls are still in charge. a lot of e-mails about siegel, jeremy siegel, 70% chance the dow will hit 15,000 this year. that was widely commented, to me at least, this morning. he sees a big increase in consumer spending. says the housing recovery is going to continue. home builders had good numbers but they are down. remember, the problem suspect the numbers they are reporting, it's the valuations. we've had pulte with good numbers, merit tash, the numbers, two times book for most of the home building companies. two times book for most of the home building companies. women pool, the guidance spectacular, 9.24 to 9.75. right now, still at 9.25. >> 19 1/2. >> to 19.75 on tri pointe homes. guys, b
happening. >> steve wood, always excellent. ashley: good stuff, sieve. now to the debt ceiling talking about washington. the senate is expected to vote on a temporary measure. rich edson in washington with more on that. rich. >> senators will likely pass the debt ceiling increase this afternoon and the president is expected to sign it extending the debt ceiling through may 18th and paving the way for the next washington fight, spending. >> the republican playbook of continuing complaining about spending is something we know we have to do something with spending. >> there are two things we know about tax increases for sure. first, they reduce jobs and hurt economic growth. and second, they distract us from addressing the real problem which is spending. >> so automatic spending cuts known as the sequester begin in march and a large forges portion of government spending authority runs out on march 27th. if lawmakers fail to reach a spending and budget deal we'll have another government shutdown then. president obama is allowing his jobs council to expire. the 2-year-old council including busine
. eventually we'll have to deal with spending cuts and the debt ceiling debate. whether or not that's it. for the meantime, the markets run a long time just because they are soaking up all the stimulus from the fed. >> a lot of stimulus from the other central banks cutting trase today. greg, you want to get in front of this train and fight the fed? >> yeah, i think that the fed is going to continue pushing pretty hard this year but equity investors have to take a look at what's in the fed's tool backs and realize they have shot every arrow that they have got. they will keep gig qe this year, maybe another $1 trillion but even inside the fed there's doubts about how much more effective will be at this stage, what, with long-term interest rates as low as they are. tomorrow i don't expect any fireworks from them. i'll be interested to see how they characterize the economy, whether they are getting more comfortable with it now that we have the biggest piece of the fiscal cliff out of the way or whether they are still concerned that employment is sluggish an inflation is tracking kind of low.
the dysfunction in washington as much as we were even though we do have the debt ceiling fight on the horizon. that's taken a back seat to this momentum in stocks. >> yeah, absolutely. i think that investors should be braced for a potential pullback, but trying to trade it i think is perilous. look, would i have expected a fairly significant pullback in december based on the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff debate. it didn't happen. i think that we were at that time telling our clients to look through the potential weakness and focus on the value and the fact that equities are very likely to be higher in a year from now, concentrate on the longer run, invest, don't trade and we think you'll be well served by that. >> give me your best idea right here then, eric. >> well, i think equities. simply the equity trade. >> what do you remember want to do, etfs, my spector sectors, etfs, how do you do it? >> very broadly. we're an active manager and use a multi-manager approach so we're broadly diversified across countries. emerging markets looks better than developed and procyclical stocks look bette
, the united states senate has just voted to extend the nation's debt ceiling for multiple months. the new deadline now will be may 19th, and that tees up now the next fiscal fight here in washington which will come on march the 1st. it will be over the so-called sequester. all of those automatic spending cuts, will they be allowed to go into effect? that will now be the next big question we wrestle with here in washington, maria. >> thanks so much. >> january jobs figures taking center stage first thing tomorrow morning as the white house shutters its jobs council. hampton pearson on what's sure to move the markets. >> reporter: hi, maria. tomorrow's job reports will have two part, the headline numbers on jobs and the unemployment rate. our cnbc survey predicts employers increasing non-farm payrolls by 1 of,000 jobs versus 155,000 in december. the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.8%. now today we heard that first-time unemployment claims actually jumped by 38000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000, that according to the labor department. lost in yesterday's focus on negative gdp was the
spending reforms in areas like debt. extension of the debt ceiling for two years. clarification on europe. first, the recession needs to stabilize, but beyond that, policy initiatives clearly indicate a road to political and fiscal and banking reforms and an indication that europe is serious about improving competitiveness. resumption of growth in emerging economies, like china, and finally the federal successfully engineering a modest increase in interest rates without unleashing runaway inflation. maria, these are tall orders, i know, but resolution of all these issues would be a huge boost to business confidence, capital expenditures and hiring would increase dramatically and revenues would rise, and that's what we need, maria. back to you. >> that's some list, bob. >> pretty ambitious. >> we'll be watching that. not everybody is buying into this bull market theory, by the way. pimco's bill gross is actually warning investors to be afraid, and i mean very afraid, of how inflation and the flood of cheap money will impact investments from here on out. bill joins me exclusively from pimco
something on sequester or the sky will fall. we have to do something on the debt ceiling or the sky will fall. we have to do something on the continuing resolution or government will shut down and the sky will fall. where do you draw the line? we have a $16 trillion debt in this country. we've got to take a stand. >> howard dean, let me go to you on this because actually you're a tight fisted guy. if i understand it, you want the sequester to go nthrough. $85 billion this year. a little less than 2.5% of the $3.8 trillion budget. if you take out entitlements, then it becomes about a 6%, 7% or 8% cut. what's wrong with that? we're in trouble. doct why can't we do it? >> the sky will fall if you don't deal with the debt ceiling. but i think unfortunately, this is the price that we pay in the fiscal cliff deal. the democrats paid. i said at the time that i thought it was a short term victory for the democrats, but a long term victory for the republicans because we gave away our leverage on tax increases. so, sure, i have no objection to giving away the carried interest on some of the p
over the budget. republicans acted in that direction by putting off the debt ceiling a couple of months until may as hampton mentioned a minute ago. the president is going to propose the same thing on the budget sequester but not, according to a white house official, laying out his own plan. he's going to call on congress to do that and expected response from republicans, tyler, is, hey, mr. president, where are your cuts, we want to see them. >> john harwood, thank you very much. once again you will see the president's address live right here on "power lunch" in just a few moments. before that occurs, we have a triple digit advance. the market added to advances a few moments ago when we got budget figures. the dow up 109 points. the nasdaq up 34 and the s&p 500 is up 14 points. more on the trading action right here from bob pisani. he joins me on the floor of the nyse. it's almost like yesterday didn't happen. >> the important thing is, i know it doesn't seem terribly exciting but we are 14,000, we're a couple of points from a historic high from the dow jones industrial. we've been up
the fiscal cliff crisis and the debt ceiling drama, now president obama is calling on congress to get past the next term we all need to turn, the sequester. big, across-the-board spending cuts that are due to take effect the 1st of march. the president called today for a limited package of spending cuts and tax reforms to avoid the deadline. republican speaker of the house john boehner rejected that, saying republicans want a bigger agreement on a long-term deficit reduction plan. the white house also announced today president obama will be going to israel this spring for the first time since taking office. israeli media say he's due to arrive march 20th. though the white house would not confirm any of the travel dates. >>> we are learning much more tonight about the breaking story we brought you here last night. the dramatic rescue of a 5-year-old boy, after a standoff in alabama that lasted almost a week. nbc's gabe gutierrez is with us tonight from midland city, alabama. gabe, good evening. >> brian, good evening. today ethan's mother broke her silence. in a written statement she said i
to bring you back for this. quick thought about this, can we get rid of the debt ceiling? >> iveng what we're seeing is some of the political brinksman ship around the debt ceiling may be a thing of the past. the renls certainly got hurt politically trying to use that tool as leverage. 6/hopefully it's an indication that that particular kind of brinksman ship is behind us. >> we'll see. i never put it beyond politicians. when the story changes, they'll change. julie, now win promise you can have your coffee break or tea break. try tea, it's very nice. english breakfast. very good thing to have first thing in the morning. we'll come back to you, jules, julia. >>> in the united states, in addition to the jobs report, there are some other pieces of the economic data. the final look at january consumer sentiment is out at 9:55 a.m. eastern. on the corporate front, exxon mobil, chevron, merck, tyson foods all report earnings before the bell. january sales are also out. they're expected to be seen at the strong rate compared to last year. this is all thanks to pent up demand as well as the impro
. i think they will do the same thing on the upcoming debt ceiling and sequestration. ashley: so if we do have this pullback after the state of the union, jeff, what sectors or stocks in particular do you like? >> i actually like all the sectors except the consumer staples. a lot of portfolio managers, professional money has been hiding out in the consumer staples because they were worried about the upcoming election, the fiscal cliff, the debt ceiling, china slowing, you name it, dysfunctional government. now it has become more apparent our dysfunctional government has become a little bit less dysfunctional i think investors will start to have to look at the fundamentals. i think the fundamentals with the housing situation, the automobile strength i think it is going to come to the fore. tracy: i hope you're right, jeff saut, with raymond james. thank you very much, sir. >> you bet. ashley: jeff says when housing is healthy and automobile industry is healthy that's always a good sign for a solid recovery. tracy: he is not wrong, right? they do kumbaya at the last minute. ashley: good
managers are telling washington right now. let's take a look at the next idea about the debt ceiling debate. i think this is a really important finding here, guys. we ask do you think congress is going to increase the debt ceiling every time it's reached, refuse to raise it at some point and don't know? you can see 86% are saying that congress will raise the debt ceiling every time it's reached this year, when i think about some of the reasons why stocks have gotten higher because i think that thread along with the fiscal cliff has come out of the market and that there's overwhelming sentiment that coss i solve the get problem. we asked wall street to grade our treasury secretary going out and one coming in. you can see a pretty strong sentiment that he was a seed secretary with a 2.2. jack lew, the sentiment there. 2.0. one more thing on the deficit i just want to say and maybe this is worthy of discussion here. i think this is a sign that things have improved, at these economists and guys on wall street are saying we should solve the deficit and do it now. i think if things were as bad as
is expected to vote this afternoon on a bill to suspend the debt ceiling for three months, following the house. this would allow more house for debate on the fiscal issues we're facing. the senate version includes several republican amendments, though, including matching spending cuts for every dollar increase in the debt ceiling. those amendments expected to be defeated. the bill won't technically raise the debt ceiling, but it will suspend it until may 19th when it will be raised by the amount that the treasury borrows in the interim. that's how it's going to work. and markets, as we've been talking about on a tear this month with the dow having its best january in decades. but will yesterday's surprising drop in gdp reign in the bulls, it says here? let's get a read on the state of the economy. at least it wasn't a -- that kind of rein. there's three of them. anyway, joining us for the next hour is bob bruska. that's fao -- >> no. you cannot. >> fao economics. as becky said at the top, things are going to go really well or the market is going to have an '87 crash. >> i like the binary outlo
in the debt ceiling in 2011 but now he doesn't want any domestic cuts. he's not somebody who wants cuts anywhere, anytime and this will be forced on him and on the pentagon cuts which he thought the republicans would avoid. he's the commander in chief. he has to worry about the forces, his own secretary of defense said we'll hollow out the forces and it will cost a lot of jobs of contractors, a lot of whom live in a state he wants, virginia. so he has to do something about this and it's unbelievable he would have offered the republicans a deal in which there are extra tax increases. republicans will do nothing and they should do nothing and demand if the president wants to avoid this, you do the ut do them somewhere else but no tax increases. >> charles lam, twice republicans have caved in to the demands of the white house and other democrats. do you think they'll do that again or will they do nothing? >> i prefer not to think of it as caving in. perhaps there's time for everyone to get reasonable. i agree with charles that the president's probably been perform today make this move toda
of what has given us so far and to an all-time high? we postpone the debt ceiling program, we get decent earnings, fundamentals here and abroad are reasonably good, central banks everywhere giving us all the help in the world and still returning zero and getting tired of that. liz: let's bring that up, can return zero. it may as well be almost treasuries which are just a 2% for the ten year. 46% of the s&p company's reporting so far for numbers, 69%, are you comfortable with that number? >> it is staying, no question. anything close to 70 is really good and on the revenue line, they have been above expectations as well. liz: if someone is positive with bob dole, i was into the market and i'm going to start picking, what the you look for when you are picking stock? >> you need to say i am a dollar cost average because i am not smart enough to get the lows and pick some of. money earmarked for equities. liz: every paycheck auto debt that goes into what? >> companies with free cash flow you can find mutual funds that focus on that sort of thing or secure own companies will do that and in a
-being. the debt ceiling has been pushed off till may. now we're in the cadence of the budget that will come forward and immigration reform is the signature item of the president, of the business community and both parties. so there is a realp opportunity to do this. david: let me just ask about one specific thing. a lot of people are on board with regard to immigrants who can add to the economy. we just had an immigrant from india on earlier who came here, got an education, at mit. and went on to start a company that makes a billion dollars and employs a thousand people that kind of immigrant is the nation that is okay with. it is the immigrants to suck off the government, to take more than they give that they're against. do you think everybody is on board with that idea? >> i think there is a lot of misinformation. i don't agree with that characterization. people have to tendency to talk about the founder, the stanford grad or mit grad that knows computer science and pounds a company and that's great. that is the h-1b high-skilled worker. equally important is the 11 million undocumented. s
up through april is the debt ceiling and what congress is going to do about that. and particularly, one number that was interesting this week was personal income and spending. it was a great number, but when you look forward, my concern is the new tax policies that are in place. and that amount of money may not be in consumers' pockets going forward. so it's been a great rally here in january. but i look for a pullback and i think we could see a 5% pullback when you look at interest rates hovering around 200 basis points, can't really pop any higher than that from a yield standpoint. i agree a correction is in the air and it is something we have to take a little pause, see where we're at and where we may go going forward. liz: yeah, i mean, we can't ignore the fact -- i want to check it because it changes moment by moment -- but the vix just at 13, straddling there? i mean alan you are looking at an energy and commodities picture over there. but when there is very little fear, and rising stocks, rising commodities, and a falling volatility index that just looks -- i mean we're show
merit. president obama has signed a debt ceiling suspension into law. the measure allows the government to keep borrowing to pay its bills. it puts off the next congressional battle over the debt ceiling until may. boeing is asking the faa for permission to resume test flights of its grounded 787 jet. it wants to test the batteries and other components in flight since certain conditions can't be simulated on the ground. the faa is evaluating boeing's request. >>> in wall street 2013 rally interrupted with a major averages suffering their worst one-day loss in a year on monday's trading. the last hour we spoke to goldman's jim o'neil about the prospects of making money in this market. >> i think to sell if you're a medium term player is probably not a smart move. but if you've made all the gains, to take some off the table isn't a crazy idea either. >> joining us now is nouriel roubini, chairman and co-founder of roubini global economics. you're not like a market master, maybe like a market jedi. plus andrew still here from fortune magazine. the one and only. we haven't seen you in a lon
and here we are about to approach the debt ceiling deby the and at record highs in the market. does this become helpful. alan greenspan used to look at the stock market and say there's a wrelt effect. when the stock market is going up people aren't worried about debt. are we fooling ourselves that we're looking at the market going higher and a wealth effect going on and there's real problems that have yet to be addressed in. >> that's a great point. in each of these moments they are responding to two things. kind of an action forcing moment. we had the cliff and now we'll have the sequester and continuing res hughes, and the market wants us to resolve these issues and each time we skirt around them, again, with the bare minimum, but we don't really fix the problem, and my concern is the market responds positively because we don't have the immediate problem, but we're really putting cap on what kind of growth, recovery, real competitiveness we can have in the economy until we fix the debt overhang. what you're saying it lulls us into a complacent moment and people are saying, well, w
, you've got the sequester, right, coming up march 1st, kicked the can a bit on raising the debt ceiling. >> want to watch the four ps, production, politics, profits, along as profit numbers come through, the market can lift. the personal income, the jobs number and the production is the industrial expansion. this last quarter was low, but mine us 0.1% because of defense reduction. other parts of the economy are doing well, especially the consumer. >> let's talk about what took us here. bank of america doing very well, verizon, at&t. you had the financials and the telecom stocks as the leadership groups. merck was down 2%. exxon down. three dow stocks were actually down. what happened there and what are you seeing at the end of the kay? >> finally seeing the laggards catching up and telecoms have done okay during this period, but i think what uruguay seeing is the overall economic data with the exception of the weaker gkp number. all the other data was very strong and all the companies are pulling up with that. >> and then with that, swing it around, what happened there. dts. what happen
're not worried about the china hard landing. we're not worried about the debt ceiling crisis. we're not worried about, well, for the moment, the eu -- we have that kind of psychological factor. a healthy private sector. and the problem is what? the problem is government and bad policy. and that's what we have to offset. >> but jim iuorio, i want to know where to invest. do we buy gold, silver, and commodities? do we buy banks, which are lagging a little bit? do we buy industrial cyclicals to play the world boom, if there is such a thing? in other words, how do you invest right now, having passed this 14,000 benchmark? >> well, there's a couple things. first of all, when caterpillar released its earnings it talked about good numbers out of housing. and you stloe in china. you invest in things like copper. you know i still like gold and silver. and today with the green light from the fed i'm still going to stay in things like those. i am in bank of america. i am in health care. i think the stock market looks pretty good. you said before, though, the stock market tends to be a leading indicator of
a debt ceiling default crisis. we're not going you have to a government shutdown. yeah, we'll probably have sequester for a few months. but i think these great epic struggles that worried the markets are starting to fade as a strategic policy. >> do you think we veal the sequester? do you think it happens, greg? >> for a while, yeah. i think on march 1 we begin at least on defense and discretionary spending. if there's enough sidewalking maybe by late spring, early sum eshg it gets undone. we'll have that. there's still some headwinds. there's this and the higher payroll tax. maybe first-half growth would be a little slow but i think the storm is sending us a message that by the second half things could be looking much better. >> this week, austin, we moved closer to the automatic across the board spending cuts, the sequester that president obama promised us would never happen. listen a few months ago. >> first of all, the sequester is not something that i propose, it's something congress has po pro-posed. it will not happen. >> i don't know, austin. that could be the one election prom
abandoned. we are not going to have a debt ceiling default crisis and we're not going to have a government shut down. we'll have sequester for a few months, but i think these great epic struggles that worry the markets are starting to fade as a strategic policy. >> do you think it happens, greg? >> for a while, yeah. i think on march 1 we begin at least on defense and discretionary spending. if there's enough squawking maybe by late spring, early summer it gets undone. we'll have that. still some head winds. there is this and the higher payroll tax. maybe first rate growth is a little slow but by the second half, things could be looking much better. >> this week, we moved closer to the unthinkable. the sequester that president obama promised us would never happen. listen just a few months ago. >> first of all, the sequester is not something that i proposed. something that congress has proposed. it will not happen. >> i don't know, that could be the one election promise the president fails to keep. the sequester a part of the decision on march 1st. what happens if the sequester happens? >>
deal on the debt ceiling. then came the fiscal cliff, that was the next chance to prevent all of the cuts. washington punted, they said hey, three more months, we'll solve it then. nope. now three months is coming so guess what? they will punt again. you know what, thinking about it today, it reminded me a lot about this. ♪ put your little hand in mine ♪ put your little hand in mine ♪ put your little hand in mine ♪ there ain't no hill or mountain we can't climb ♪ >> that of course was "groundhog day." at least they had a good song. we have to listen to the terrible voices of people in washington. "outfront," michael waldman from nyu school of law, and michael medved, conservative commentator. great to see both of you. the president asking for a smaller package because a bigger deal can't get done. how is this moving the ball forward? there's blame to go on both sides here but it is pathetic. >> i think he probably would say that it's better to kick the can down the road than to kick the economy off the cliff. this is kind of a self-inflicted answer to a concocted cri
. >> well, the president just signed the bill that raises the debt ceiling. so in an age where these fiscal fights are, they're the same, they're ongoing, they can be insecendiary incendiary, we're always talking about a government shutdown of one kind or another, where does this leave us? >> it leaves us with a bunch of people who just fought the first fight, and the senate democrats are going to annapolis today and tomorrow to try to figure out, how do we move forward? how do we move forward with a budget? how do we move forward on funding the government? both of those things need to be done by april 15th. >> because they have taken some hits. and do they really want to give republicans anymore ammunition? >> that's why they've said, we're going to do a budget. and they were happy to sign the increase, meant they had a deadline of april 15th, where they don't get paid, and they have to get a budget done. >> always a good incentive there. >> so democrats understand that they need that, but this is going to be a partisan document by and large, saying, here's our spending priorities. democra
on. >> so, now we haven't seen the downgrade and now we're waiting on the next level of debt ceiling debate or the sequestration and you start to see this headline. is this a warning to the other rating agencies -- >> trying to smack them down before -- >> if i were a conspiracy guy, that's -- >> if you were. lay it out. >> don't paint me with that brush. but if i were, this is what i would be saying. >> let's let that sit out there, just sit there. one of wall street's most well-known banking analysts surging you to buy all of the banks. here's what he said earlier today. >> you should be buying goldman sachs, bank of america, u.s. bank corp, you should be buying comerica. what you are going to get is continuous upearnings, inkreeflss in dividends, higher stock buy-back programs and record results. >> was he bullish? karen says to buy one bank stock in particular and she is turning her back on her belove fd jamie dimon. >> i'm not turning my back on him. you know, it's still as strong between us as it ever was, only -- >> should we slap another ceo in that little bubble? >> no, no,
in the congress with the president and the debt ceiling. similar to what we had in the summer of 2011. >> they gave you a little bit of cover right? they extended at least and kicked the can for a short period of time down the road. so washington at least is going to be out of it. say for another 30 days. before we have to start worrying about the sequester correct? >> correct. >> is there a bubble in bonds? >> there is. if you look at spreads they're much too tight to the curb especially with the high yield. people are looking just at the nominal interest they're collecting but not thinking about the duration of what happens if ultimately the fed withdraws liquidity and rates back up. if the economy were to go back into recession many high yield bonds especially the lower rated ones might have a hard time paying the interest because obviously business would be soft. you have to be careful about the risk that you're taking for that nominal yield of 5 to 5.5%. >> scott, can the market continue to dismiss the under performance of the technology space when you listen to some of the earni
bill. connell: we have rich edson on capitol hill. rich: the senate is increasing a debt in the ceiling. that would allow spending through may 18. they can push that date even further into the summer. the debt ceiling moves out of the way for fight over government spending. it has already started. >> clearly, it is the spending that we have to deal. now is the perfect time to do so. the key to a robust recovery is to create jobs and grow. >> it is something that we know. we understand that. there is more to making our recall of an economy. rich: if any of the amendments pass, the bill then heads back to the house. the senate will very likely said this bill to the president's desk this evening. the sequester beginning in march in a large portion of government authority running out march 7. if they fail to reach a spending puma we will have another government shutdown. back to you. connell: let's bring in band manager. -- let's bring in dan and. the president is a bully. is that what that means? >> clearly, john boehner is now understanding that what is going on is he is in the thunder do
'm waiting for the spring. >> what's happening in this spring? >> the sequester, next debt ceiling debate, a number of items that might send the market 10% lower. >> that's true but i have too much money to think about policy and not enough thinking about the fundamentals. >> 90% of hedge funds conform the market. the stock market was up 7% and the hedge funds averaging 8% or show. lot of that average performance came from worrying about these speed bumps. >> you can argue they were hedged. >> that might be. >> if you and andrew have never seen a period 800 on the dow, then 1200, then 3200, then 4200, then 6200, that was unbelievable to watch for 20 years. if you've never seen that, you have no input or experience on how that feels or work out, right? that would be a whole new dynamic -- >> i wasn't alive. >> i know. when that gets gone -- >> there's not enough research to support that point, the way people experience things in 20s and 30s it's with them their whole lives. joe and i think the bull market is normal and you guys think they're abnormal. >> if you haven't been through that --
for four more months. the house passed a bill that extends the debt ceiling through may 18th. the legislation also requires both the house and the san jose to approve budgets by april 15th or face the loss of their paychecks. >>> the government of zimbabwe says it has own $217 left in the national treasury. this is after paying public workers last week. the government says it will ask the international community for financial assistance. opposition parties accuse the government of misusing hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue from the country's diamond sales. >>> new this morning, syria and iran are threatening to retaliate against israel for a rare israeli air strike inside syria. u.s. officials say israel is targeting a weapons convoy when it launched the air strike. the convey was believed to be the anti-weapons headed to hezbollah militants. the concern, that would allow the militant to shoot down israeli airplanes. syria said the israeli air strikes hit a military research facility. >>> "the new york times" now revealing for the last four months its computer system
important that house republicans made the move for a short-term compromise on the debt ceiling. that's good news for markets because it shows politicians are not going to play chicken with the one thing that could really make a difference to the u.s. economy. it does suggest, though, that both the sequester and the continuing resolution might be places where opposition republicans take the opportunity to try to extract some containment trt white house. >> and what's your -- as you've priced that in, what do you expect, actually, the to be the outcome as we head into march towards the end of the month? is there more fiscal drag related tr these talks? >> we still see economic up sides for the u.s. citi economists have improved their growth forecast overall, but this isn't helping and it's not necessarily helping business confidence. what we think markets may not be prepared for is the fact that ee quest ragz is now likely to kick in. these are comments from both parties suggested that they be willing to allow this to happen. it may be the lesser of the evils. >> what are we talking about wit
had earmarked for the equity market. we have avoided the fiscal cliff posted on the debt ceiling. earnings are decent, decent economic indicators here and outside the u.s. on balance is good, not everyone of them. we have central bankers all over the world, but begging for reflation putting money in the system and a lot of cash getting zero return and those things i think are the reason the stock is likely to continue going. connell: that is the last one i want to pick up on because reading your most recent numbers is lack of tolerance for the cash balances giving a zero return, so people do look and say i can't get a return for a decent yield on anything, so i would rather be in stocks than any kind of fixed income class. if any of that changing in the future, and if so at what point? interest rates have to go up some point, don't they? >> i think they will continue to creep higher, but they can't go a lot higher because the economy would then weekend. so i think as we globalize and the rate race will continue hig, but a lot of cash out there saying when things were volatile in
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